North Carolina’s 2026 U.S. Senate race is shaping up to be a very competitive open contest, sparked by the unexpected retirement of Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Serving since 2015, Tillis unexpectedly announced last year that he would not seek a third term in 2026. His departure leaves a critical battleground seat in a swing state where Donald Trump narrowly carried North Carolina in the 2024 presidential election.
North Carolina continues to be one of the nation’s most consequential swing states, defined by thin margins and a history of shifting political leanings. In the 2016 Presidential contest, President Donald Trump won the state by four votes. In 2020, he again reclaimed the state with a smaller margin of less than 2 percent. Yet, in 2024, President Trump won North Carolina again by 4 points. The last Senate contest in the state was in 2022; Democratic challenger and former NC Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley lost to Republican challenger and businessman Ted Budd (R) by 3 points (121,737 votes).
North Carolina is widely regarded as a swing state as its electorate does not consistently favor one party in elections, split-ticket voting is common, and margins of victory are often narrow.
Despite Democrats often falling short at the top of the ticket in North Carolina’s federal races, they have seen notable success in statewide executive contests, particularly for the governorship. In 2016, Roy Cooper narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Pat McCrory in the gubernatorial race that year by a razor-thin margin of about 10,000 votes — roughly a few tenths of a percentage point — even as the state voted for Donald Trump at the presidential level. In 2020, Cooper won re-election by 4 points against Republican Dan Forest, and secured over 50% of the vote, again outperforming Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the state. Most recently in 2024, Democrat Josh Stein decisively won the governorship, defeating Republican Mark Robinson by a nearly 15-point margin. This margin is the largest Democrats have seen here in decades, even as Republicans carried the state in the concurrent presidential contest. These results illustrate how Democratic candidates can outperform national party performance in North Carolina statewide races, especially when tailored to local issues and contexts.
The North Carolina Democratic and Republican primaries for this Senate contest were held on March 3, 2026. Gov. Cooper easily secured the Democratic nomination. He will face former chairman Michael Whatley, the GOP establishment’s hand-selected candidate. Known for his work at the RNC, he served as the national organization chair from 2024 to 2025. Prior to that, he served as the chair of the North Carolina Republican Party. He has never held office and is a staunch supporter of the Trump Administration, as well as election denialism. Upon his announcement to run in this race, President Donald Trump endorsed him.
In his submitted questionnaire, Gov. Roy Cooper is invested in serving his home state. He doesn’t want to sit on the “sidelines” anymore while he watches “attacks on our workers and everyday people” by the Trump Administration. Cooper said he is greatly concerned about the cost of health care and the loss of access to quality care. He has heard from voters in the state about how “high prices, rising income inequality and slow wage growth” are putting the middle class out of reach for many Americans. Cooper indicated that he is a unique candidate through his decades-long service to his state, and not by being a D.C. insider.
If elected, Gov. Cooper plans to “bring the leadership needed to the United States Senate to provide for our people and nation” by focusing on issues like health care protection and expansion, and protecting working families.
In a poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College between June 15 and June 27, among 600 North Carolina voters, Gov. Cooper was found leading Whatley by 7 points. In a head-to-head matchup, 50% of likely voters indicated they would vote for Gov. Cooper, while only 43% surveyed supported Whatley. 6% of voters surveyed indicated they were undecided.
