Minnesota’s 2026 U.S. Senate race is shaping up to be a closely watched contest, sparked by the retirement of Democratic Senator Tina Smith. Serving since 2018, Smith announced in February of 2025 that she would not seek a second term in 2026. Her departure opens up a seat in a state that has trended red in recent years, and that may become a competitive race with a strong Republican candidate.
Minnesota continues to be one of the Upper Midwest’s most politically dynamic states, with a mix of urban, suburban, and rural constituencies that often produce competitive statewide races. While it has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1976, recent cycles have shown narrowing margins. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by just 1.5 points. In 2020, Biden won the state by 7 points, but in 2024, VP Kamala Harris won this state by only 4 points, reflecting Republican gains in exurban and rural regions. Additionally, the Minnesota congressional House delegation is evenly split with four Democrats and four Republicans.. The Minnesota State House is also evenly split, and the State Senate has a one-seat Democratic majority. Although Democrats have held both Senate seats for decades, Republicans remain competitive stateside, and particularly during off-year elections.
The 2026 Senate race will also coincide with the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. Democratic Governor Tim Walz, who has served since 2019, indicated in January that he will not be running again for office. Minnesota’s four-term incumbent Senator, Amy Klobuchar, entered the race following Walz’s announcement, and all signs indicate this race will likely not be that competitive.
The Minnesota Democratic and Republican primaries for this Senate race were held on August 11, 2026. In the Democratic field, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig (MN-02) by 20 points to secure the nomination. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya, a former ESPN and NBC sideline reporter, won the nomination. While Republican operatives consider Tafoya’s entrance into the race as a recruitment victory since she is a recognizable figure, Tafoya has never run for public office and has only recently started engaging in state politics.
In her submitted questionnaire, Flanagan said through her “Kitchen Table Conversations” tour she’s hosting across the state, she’s hearing the same core concerns from Minnesotans: they’re struggling to afford basic needs, they’re alarmed by attacks on democracy and the rule of law, and they’re exhausted by the toxic division in politics. She noted that her campaign message—centered on economic security, dignity, and results—is resonating across the state. Since becoming Lieutenant Governor in 2019, Flanagan has helped pass landmark policies from paid family and medical leave to major investments in education, healthcare, and housing. She has championed small businesses, supported family farms, and led the charge to protect reproductive rights in Minnesota. She also mentions that her decades of coalition-building and her strong statewide profile over the last six years as Lieutenant Governor put her in a strong position to consolidate support heading into a competitive primary.
Flanagan’s path to victory is rooted in deep organizing, a people-powered message, and strong early momentum. Her team expects this to be the most expensive Senate race in Minnesota history, estimating the winning candidate will need to raise around $20 million combined for both the primary and general elections. Flanagan plans to invest heavily in digital and direct mail, with at least $1 million in paid media ahead of the August 2026 primary, and a field operation uniquely tailored to Minnesota’s caucus and convention process.
If elected, Flanagan plans to continue building on the work she has accomplished as Lieutenant Governor while also stopping Donald Trump and billionaires from ransacking the government and making life harder for working-class Minnesotan families.
In an Emerson College poll, conducted in February after Republican candidate Tafoya’s entrance into this race, a sample of Minnesota likely voters were asked who they would vote for in the general election. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Lt. Gov. Flanagan was found to be leading Tafoya by 6 points —47%-41%— while 12% of voters were undecided or voting for someone else. In a hypothetical contest between Rep. Craig and Tafoya, Rep. Craig ran 7 points ahead, with 13% of voters undecided or selecting another candidate. Voters indicated threats to democracy are the top issue facing Minnesota, followed by immigration and the economy. Additionally, voters were asked if ICE’s presence in communities were found to be more harmful than beneficial: 60% of voters indicated it was more harmful, while 36% indicated it would be more beneficial.
