New Hampshire’s 2026 U.S. Senate race is shaping up to be one of many competitive open-seat contests in the country this cycle, following the decision by Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen not to seek reelection. First elected to the Senate in 2008 after serving as Governor, her retirement removes a well-established incumbent from the ballot, creating a rare open-seat opportunity in a closely divided state. In an increasingly polarized national environment and in a state known for tight races and independent-minded voters, both parties view this seat as a critical opportunity for 2026.
New Hampshire has long been recognized for its distinctive political culture, with voters frequently electing candidates based on their experience and background rather than their party loyalty. The state is often associated with its Democratic-leaning population centers, particularly in the southern region near Boston, but it also includes more conservative rural and exurban areas. While Democrats currently make up the state’s congressional delegation, Republicans still hold the Governorship and also have the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. A large share of voters are also registered to third parties or are unaffiliated with a party; thus, split-ticket voting is common, with voters often backing candidates from different parties in the same election cycle.
In the recent election cycle, it is evident that New Hampshire voters are routinely engaging in split-ticket voting. While electing Democratic candidates in federal elections, Republicans have maintained strength in state-level offices, most notably through the electoral success of Governor Chris Sununu (R), who served from 2017 to 2025 and was reelected three times. In 2020, Gov. Sununu won reelection to office by over 30 points, while President Joe Biden won the state by 7 points. Similarly, in 2024, Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte won the open gubernatorial contest by 9 points. Yet, Vice President Kamala Harris won the Presidential contest by over 2 points. This pattern highlights New Hampshire’s willingness to support candidates from either party, contributing to the uncertainty and competitiveness of this upcoming Senate race.
New Hampshire’s recent Senate contests also underscore New Hampshire’s unique political leanings. Democrats have been representing New Hampshire in the upper chamber for the past 17 years. In 2020, Sen. Shaheen secured reelection by a comfortable margin of 15 points, even though Republican Gov. Sununu was reelected by over 30 points on the same ballot. In 2022, Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan was up for her first reelection bid. She secured her second term in the upper chamber by 9 points against her Republican challenger. Meanwhile, on the same ticket, Gov. Sununu won reelection to office by 16 points. With no incumbent on the ballot in 2026, the race is expected to hinge on candidate profiles, national political dynamics, and turnout among the state’s large bloc of independent voters.
The 2026 Senate race will also coincide with the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte, who was first elected in 2024, is the only announced candidate. With Democrats not seeming to field a competitive challenger, this race will likely not be that competitive.
The New Hampshire Democratic and Republican primaries for this Senate contest were held on September 8. In the Democratic field, while there were a few other announced candidates, Rep. Pappas was considered the frontrunner and easily secured the nomination. On the Republican side, former New Hampshire Senator John E. Sununu won the nomination. Considered the frontrunner throughout the primary and the candidate national republicans put their support behind, Sununu served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1997 to 2003, representing New Hampshire’s 1st district. After this, he was elected to a single term in the U.S. Senate, representing New Hampshire from 2003 to 2009. Since his time in the Senate, no other Republicans have been elected to represent New Hampshire in the upper chamber. He is the son of John H. Sununu and the older brother of Chris Sununu, both of whom were governors of New Hampshire. With a strong name ID and experience, Republicans considered this a recruitment victory.
In his submitted questionnaire, Rep. Pappas mentioned that he is running for Senate to keep this state “in Democratic hands” and to continue representing the state he has always called home. Rep. Pappas said he has heard from New Hampshire voters that the most pressing concerns are lowering costs and making life more affordable for families and small businesses, addressing the state’s housing crisis, and protecting critical programs like Medicare, SNAP, VA health care, and Social Security.
So far, Rep. Pappas’s campaign has focused on highlighting his experience serving New Hampshire in Congress. He is making sure voters are aware of his time serving the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and his leadership as Co-Chair of the Congressional LGBTQ Equality Caucus, while emphasizing his roots as a Manchester native and small business owner. Rep. Pappas plans to continue building out support and momentum for his campaign by connecting with Democratic, Republican, and independent voters, drawing clear contrasts with potential Republican opponents, and building the organizational and financial infrastructure needed to compete in this open race.
Rep. Pappas mentioned that to keep this seat blue, he has been focused on “building the team required to raise the resources we will need to compete with Republican mega-donors, communicate our message to voters, and organize the state to turnout as many voters as possible and protect voters’ access to the ballot box.” He mentioned that in the last Senate race in New Hampshire in 2022, Sen. Hassan raised more than $36 million. Rep. Pappas additionally mentioned that he is aware that the nature of this race will require more financial support than the state has seen before to ensure that his campaign has the ability to communicate with voters via TV, digital, mail, and through a robust organizing program.
If elected, Pappas plans to “continue to travel across New Hampshire, listen and learn from the Granite State, and bring their voices[voters] and their stories back with me to Washington as I continue to fight on behalf of the people of New Hampshire.”
In a poll conducted by Peak Insights between June 24 and June 27, among 500 likely New Hampshire voters, Rep. Pappas was found slightly leading Sununu. In a head-to-head matchup, 43% of likely voters indicated they would vote for Rep. Pappas, while 42% surveyed supported Sununu. 15% of voters indicated they were undecided.
