Florida’s 2026 Senate special election is shaping up to be a competitive contest this cycle. This special election will be held to elect the official to finish the last two years of former Republican Senator Marco Rubio’s term after he resigned his seat to become the Secretary of State. Ashley Moody, the former Attorney General of Florida, was appointed to represent this seat in 2025 by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Once considered a swing state, Florida has trended more consistently Republican in recent years. While the state narrowly supported President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, President Donald Trump has won Florida’s electoral college votes in the last three election cycles and has increased his margin of victory each time. Since President Trump’s first election, Republicans have also strengthened their hold on most statewide offices. The GOP currently controls both Senate seats, the governorship, and maintains firm majorities in the state legislature. Of Florida’s 28 Congressional districts, only 7 are represented by Democrats. In 2024, Republicans again performed strongly at the presidential level in Florida, with President Trump winning the state by 13 points, reinforcing its evolution from a perennial battleground to a state that leans red in federal elections.
The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Florida was in 2012, when incumbent Senator Bill Nelson secured re-election to a third term. Following his narrow defeat in 2018 by Republican challenger Rick Scott, Republicans have held both Senate seats. Yet, since Trump’s second election to the presidency, there have been indications of renewed Democratic energy in parts of the state. In 2025, Democrats notched a series of wins in local and special elections, which party leaders pointed to as signs of shifting voter sentiment and a potential backlash against Republican leadership at both the state and national levels.
A major victory for Democrats last year was when Eileen Higgins won the Miami mayoral election. Higgins not only became the first woman elected to lead the city of Miami as mayor, but it is also the first time in nearly 30 years that a Democrat has held the Miami Mayor’s office. Higgins defeated Republican challenger Emilio Gonzalez by 19 points. Many political operatives attribute this large victory as evidence that Trump’s past gains with Hispanic voters may be coming undone, in part due to backlash against his Administration’s hardline immigration policy platform.
The 2026 Senate race will coincide with Florida’s gubernatorial election, which is drawing national attention as sitting incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited, leaving the governorship open. With Rep. Byron Donalds (FL-19) as the Republican nominee, the Cook Political Report rates this race as Likely Republican.
The Florida Democratic and Republican primaries for this Senate contest were held on August 18, 2026. In the Democratic field, there were a few other announced candidates, notably retired United States Army lieutenant colonel Alex Vindman. Nixon defeated Vindman to secure the nomination by 11 points. On the Republican side, Senator Ashley Moody, who has held this position through appointment since last January, won the nomination. Moody has built her profile statewide through her prior service, and she enters the race with the advantage of incumbency.
In her submitted questionnaire, Nixon said she is am running because “families are doing everything asked of them and still cannot afford the basics … they deserve a senator who will take on the corporations raising their costs, protect their freedom to make decisions about their own bodies, and fight for healthcare and dignity at work.” Across the state, Nixon has heard from voters about how a “good quality of life is increasingly out of reach.” Voters have talked to her about the price of rent, insurance bills, groceries, and healthcare. Nixon mentioned politicians from both sides are “completely out of touch with the average Floridian.” If elected, Nixon wants “ people to see themselves in their government and know they have someone there who will show up for them.”
