IA-03

Partisan Voter Index (PVI): R+3

Lean Republican

Axne has served as the U.S House Representative for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District since 2019. Notably, Axne was the second women to ever represent Iowa in the U.S House of Representatives. Prior to her position in the U.S House of Representatives, Axne worked for Iowa state government from 2005-2014. Axne is also a small business owner who runs a digital design firm.

Axne is currently one of only seven Democrats who represents a district that Trump won in 2020. This district is considered to be a Democratic toss-up in the midterms. Under the new lines, her district has become marginally redder. In 2020, Axne was reelected by 1.4 points, and former President Trump won the district by 0.1 points. Under the new district lines, Trump would have won the district by 0.4 points. The NRCC has listed this seat as a top target seat, creating a challenging path to victory for Axne. Her GOP challenger is Zach Nunn, a member of the Iowa State Senate representing District 15. In the third quarter of 2022, Axne raised $1,423,228 and has $1.7 million in cash on hand, significantly more than then Zunn, who raised $889,458 and has only $445,000 cash on hand. However, with the current political landscape and Trump’s narrow win of this district in 2020 and outside groups’ interest, this race is rated lean Republican.