VA-07

Partisan Voter Index (PVI): D+1

Lean Democratic

Spanberger has been the U.S House Representative for Virginia’s 7th congressional district since 2019. Spanberger’s 2018 election made her the first Democratic representative of the district since 1971. Prior to Congress, she was a federal law enforcement officer with the U.S Postal Inspection Service and a case officer for the CIA.

Virginia’s 7th district shifted from a slightly Republican-leaning seat to a slightly Democratic-leaning seat through the redistricting process. However, redistricting has swapped Rep. Spanberger’s base in the Richmond suburbs for the Democratic-leaning outer DC suburbs, an area that has less reliable midterm voters and who are unfamiliar with her. In 2020, Rep. Spanberger was reelected by 1.8 points and President Biden won the district by 1.3 points. Under the new district lines, President Biden would have won the seat by 6.3 points, and Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would have won the seat by 5 points. Her Republican challenger is Prince William County Supervisor and MAGA activist Yesil Vega. Vega has gained endorsements for members of the House Freedom Caucus, Ginni Thomas, and Sen. Ted Cruz. Vega’s candidacy is seen as an advantage for Democrats, who can portray Vega as far right in a seat that Biden won by 6 points. She raised over $2.2 million in the third quarter and has $851,000 on hand. This will give her a significant boost over Vega, who raised $1.5 million and has just $440,000 cash on hand. This race is expected to be a toss-up.